“Millennials aren’t having kids. Here’s why,” read a recent headline on The Washington Post website. It’s a topic that should be a concern for anyone interested in America’s future.
The explanations for this trend actually make sense. But first, a little background to explain why the country’s birth rate is so important.
There are at least two ways to measure the birth rate. A Census Bureau count of the number of times women aged 25 to 44 have given birth showed that, between 1975 and 2022, the percentage with either no child or one child increased. But all the percentages of women with two, three or more births decreased.
Another measurement, known as the fertility rate, fell below 2 in 2010 and has been around 1.8 births per woman for the last several years. This is the most obvious red flag.
The population grows if the fertility rate is higher than 2 per woman (to account for both parents, obviously). But if the rate is less than 2, that means the population will decline over time — unless immigrants make up the difference, which is a debate for another day.
Some of the reasons for the declining number of babies have been well documented. More young women, for example, are choosing to enter the workplace and have decided to put off starting a family. More adults also have made the choice not to have any children at all.
Another factor: Marriage rates continue to decline, and studies show that unmarried people are less likely to have children.
And the economics: Millennials, defined as people born between 1981 and 1996, came of age during a string of difficult times.
The Great Recession that began in 2008 knocked a real hole in homeownership. Millennials generally have been late to buy a home, which for many people is a first step toward having children.
This age group has also been hit by a changing workplace that seems less stable than in past decades, along with the covid-19 pandemic that shut down much of the economy in 2020.
“Millennials probably faced more economic headwinds in their childbearing years than any other generation,” the Post story said. There is something to that.
Another factor that’s barely mentioned in the story is the cost of raising children. This starts right away, with essentials like diapers and formula. Having kids requires years of spending on medical care, education, food, recreation — and none of it is cheap, especially with the hammer of inflation in 2022. It’s easy to see how this might encourage people to delay a family or decide to have fewer kids.
All this, of course, ignores the many positives of raising children. A Gallup poll says 73% of adults believe either two or three children is the ideal number for a family to have. So it’s possible today’s prime-age adults might increase the birth rate if the world gets a bit more stable.
Jack Ryan, Enterprise-Journal
