If anything, the quest for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination is proving that while nice guys may not finish last, this is an election year in which they have no chance of finishing first.
U.S. Sen Tim Scott dropped out of the campaign on Sunday, just a few days after his participation in the third presidential debate. Scott presented an uplifting, optimistic message to Republican voters, and was the only Black GOP candidate. But it became clear a while back that he was not connecting with enough voters or financial backers.
Scott was one of the most interesting candidates for 2024. He regularly cited the Bible on the campaign trail, and also said that, having grown up poor in the South, his life was proof that Democrats who claim people like him cannot overachieve are wrong.
He is not as sharp of a speaker as Trump, Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy or Chris Christie, but Scott seems like the sort of level-headed, common-sense person who would make a good president. Just not in the 2024 election.
Scott’s withdrawal was inevitable, as was Mike Pence’s a couple of weeks before him. This means the most prominent members of the 2024 campaign’s nicest, least aggressive wing are out, and that may say something about what the GOP is looking for next year.
The most likely “something” favored by GOP voters continues to be former President Donald Trump, who has a commanding lead over Gov. Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley in the polls. With only two months before the high-profile voting in Iowa and New Hampshire, it’s hard to see how Trump won’t keep his lead and become the party’s nominee for the third straight election.
However, Scott’s departure calls to mind a column in The Washington Post by George Will, who went on record in July with a prediction that neither Trump nor DeSantis would be the 2024 Republican nominee.
Will’s assessment of those two still rings true five months later: “Trump, as stale as a month-old crust of sourdough, is running to win the 2020 election.” DeSantis, meanwhile, “after nearly two months of intensified exposure to non-Floridians, resembles a political Edsel.”
If Will turns out to be correct — and his prediction is nowhere near accurate yet — the obvious alternative among the remaining candidates is Haley, the only candidate who has gained polling support at the expense of DeSantis and others. Christie is unpopular with Republican voters, and Ramaswamy is talkative but clearly not ready for prime time.
Things are almost as interesting on the Democratic side, where reports persist that more people are giving thought to challenging 80-year-old President Biden, fearing that his age may be a deal breaker with too many voters.
Haley still has a big mountain to climb, while other Democrats have a decision to make. As 2024 approaches, it’s looking more interesting.
Jack Ryan, Enterprise-Journal
