What should Americans make of this weekend’s miniature Russian Revolution, when a one-time ally of Vladimir Putin sent his mercenary soldiers toward Moscow before turning the convoy away?
The first thought, and one that probably should be discarded, is that the episode is a signal that Putin is at risk of being removed from power. The obvious question that idea brings up is, by whom?
It certainly won’t be Yevgeniy Prigozhin, whose soldiers have been fighting on Russia’s side in Ukraine. Prigozhin blamed a Russian attack on one of his camps for killing 30 of his troops. He said Monday that he ordered the rebellion against Putin to prevent his troops from signing contracts to become part of the Russian military.
Putin said Monday that Prigozhin has three options. He can go to Belarus with his troops — which was the deal that turned the advancing units away from Moscow. Or he can fight for Russia. Or he can go home.
But given that Putin tends to retaliate against his enemies through poisonings, arrests and other means, the more likely outcomes are that Prigozhin winds up dead or in a Russian prison. He shot at the emperor and missed.
Here’s another thought about the long odds that Prigozhin faced, if indeed he was trying to roust Putin from power: Prigozhin claims he has 25,000 troops, but British analysts say 8,000 is a far more accurate estimate.
Does anyone seriously think that an Russian autocrat who’s been in power for 23 years is going to be removed by those relatively small numbers of soldiers? Putin has not stayed in power by failing to plan for emergencies. Surely he had his own thousands of troops at the ready.
The Russian military’s ineptitude has been exposed in Ukraine for more than a year. But protecting the Kremlin would have been far easier than overrunning a nation whose residents have decided to fight back.
The biggest curiosity about this weekend is the involvement of the president of Belarus in convincing Prigozhin to stop his advance and getting Putin to agree to let Prigozhin set up camp in Belarus, a former Soviet state that borders both Russia and Ukraine. Since when has Putin not been in charge?
Putin vowed vengeance against those who challenged his authority — but then backed down. Prigozhin sent his mercenaries toward his nation’s capital — and also backed down. It was a rare moment of sanity between two men accustomed to having their way.
As for America, our interests are not properly served by an armed power struggle in a nation with thousands of nuclear devices. Putin is no friend of the United States, but it’s likely that if someone like Prigozhin seized power, he would be no improvement.
Bottom line: Check back on Putin in a few weeks or months. See if Prigozhin truly remains safe in Belarus or has walked into a trap. And keep an eye on Ukraine to see whether its forces recapture Russian-held territory. That’s how the world will know what’s going on in Russia.
Jack Ryan, Enterprise-Journal
