One thing’s certain about the auto industry: It pays close attention to its California market, to the point that when the state requires a change in equipment for vehicles, companies are likely to make the same change nationwide.
The Golden State appears ready to flex its muscles once again, this time involving electric vehicles.
The Washington Post reports that California is moving closer to a future ban of the sale of new cars that run only on gasoline. If approved by a state board and then the federal Environmental Protection Agency, in 2035 only zero-emission passenger cars, pickup trucks and SUVs as well as a limited number of plug-in hybrids would be allowed for sale in the state.
While cars made before 2035 will still be able to operate in the state, and could also be resold, the regulation clearly would set a key date in the transition to electric vehicles, especially if automakers meet that goal nationwide.
A state official predicted the change would reduce pollution from cars and light trucks by 50% by 2040. For a place like California that is clogged with both people and cars, that’s a significant improvement.
Of course, 2035 has already been in the news when it comes to EVs. General Motors announced last year that it would end production of gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles by then, switching to all-electric production. To a degree, if California does ban the sale of newly made gasoline vehicles, it’s only getting in line with the plans of a major automaker.
There are still plenty of issues about the upcoming switch to EVs:
• While there may be less pollution from gas-powered engines, where is all the electricity going to come from to charge these cars?
• The EV battery industry still has a ways to go to match what gas-powered cars offer.
• The federal government’s inflation bill included provisions to offer incentives of several thousand dollars to EV buyers. That’s the clearest signal that electric vehicles have not yet met all the capabilities of gasoline engines. This switch will be far less controversial when EVs routinely exceed their competitors’ performance. Buyer incentives are a crutch that may not get us closer to that goal.
• Since 2035 really isn’t that far off — it’s the year that today’s kindergarten students will graduate from high school — companies that have made a good living on gasoline engines must prepare a different business model. The convenience stores that are the primary suppliers of gasoline come immediately to mind, but there are plenty of others, too. This is yet another area, hopefully, where American ingenuity will win the day.
The point is this: If California sets 2035 in stone, and GM already has, it’s very likely that most of the vehicles sold in America will be electric by then. The industry has less than 13 years to solve some significant problems, like EVs that catch fire and burn for several hours. But there’s no doubt about what’s coming.
Jack Ryan, Enterprise-Journal
