With the delivery of yet another series of indictments, you would think this is a bad time for former President Donald Trump. But from a political standpoint, things are even worse for his most prominent 2024 challenger, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Just nine months ago, DeSantis was riding high in his home state. Buoyed by his administration’s efficient response to severe damage from Hurricane Ian, he cruised to a second term with a 19-point victory and looked invincible. He even won a couple of counties in south Florida that had been Democratic strongholds for years. The election was a gigantic vote of confidence for DeSantis.
But this year, in choosing to run against Trump in the Republican presidential primary, DeSantis is learning the painful lesson that all political glory is fleeting.
A story on The Washington Post website showed just how quickly DeSantis’ presidential fortunes have turned. In March, a poll of 1,500 registered Florida Republicans said DeSantis led Trump by a 59%-28% margin. But another poll in July of 900 Republicans in the state gave Trump a sizable 54%-37% lead — almost a complete reversal from the poll just four months prior.
What gives? One key factor, obviously, is Republican sympathy generated by the stream of Trump’s indictments, first in New York, then at the federal level in Florida and now this week in Washington, D.C.
Another is that the easily aggrieved Trump believes DeSantis betrayed him by running for president. Trump believes he played the key role in getting DeSantis elected to his first term as governor, and so he never hesitates to bash DeSantis for seeking a promotion this year.
A number of Florida Republicans apparently believe that DeSantis should have waited until 2028, when Trump will have left the stage, to seek the presidency. One GOP candidate for Congress believes DeSantis has hurt himself so badly by running for president this year that he has no political future in Florida.
However, the Post makes a strong case that DeSantis is responsible for much of his inability to poll more closely to Trump’s numbers.
The Republican business class is questioning DeSantis’ thinking when he picked a fight with the Walt Disney Co., which is Florida’s single largest employer, because it opposed the “don’t say gay” bill that the governor supported. Disney has already canceled a $1 billion construction project in Florida.
The Post said DeSantis’ signatures on a bill that bans abortion in Florida after six weeks of conception, and another that eliminates “permanent alimony,” have affected his standing with female voters.
As for the support of elected officials, 100 of the 111 Republican members of the Florida Legislature have endorsed DeSantis — possibly because they fear his vindictive tendencies at the state Capitol. But 11 Republican congressmen from Florida have endorsed Trump.
The governor’s team brushes away these issues, saying there’s plenty of time for DeSantis to steady himself. And it is true that Trump’s mounting legal troubles could create a potential political barrier for the former president.
But Trump still has a big lead. The weak polling in his home state clearly is the biggest sign of looming trouble for DeSantis.
“The governor’s uphill battle in his own state is a troubling sign at a moment when his campaign is struggling to regain momentum,” the Post observed. If DeSantis can’t change that trend, his national prospects appear dim indeed.
Jack Ryan, Enterprise-Journal
